天驭学院 · 教学材料 · Trading Risk Management
Text walkthrough
Kelly 公式原理
A self-paced text walkthrough, without video or audio. See the article below for worked examples and materials.
Course Notes
In "Trading Risk Management" → "Kelly 与期望管理", this lesson "Kelly 公式原理" builds knowledge you can apply immediately.
二元Kelly基于已知胜率和固定赔率的简化模型。f=p−(1−p)/b不能直接处理不稳定概率、连续收益和尾部风险；参数估计误差会显著改变结果。 把盈利赔率b与胜率p分开→算忽略费用的f→做胜率下降敏感性→写不满足模型的现实因素。 本课作业：赔率2，分别以p=0.4与p=0.3计算简化Kelly；负值说明什么？
These points align with the video walkthrough—take notes as you watch.
After studying, complete the companion practice lesson to move from understanding to doing.
Key Takeaways
完成标记仅记录个人学习，不代表能力认证。练习使用教学假设或合成数据，不要求真实开户、入金或交易。